Ripe log

Totals add every tracked expression: the stock at your own risk sizing, and one contract of each option play. Each setup offers those as alternatives — you would take one, not all of them — so this is the sum of a book nobody would run. Useful for comparing the expressions against each other; not a figure for what the strategy would have paid you.

By default this log scores the ready + momentum set: setups whose 3-month relative strength put them with their cohort on the day they were captured — a long in the top 30%, a short in the bottom 30% — which is what the Screen’s default filter recommends. Counter-momentum setups are still captured every night, and the All ready toggle scores them too. They are kept rather than discarded for two reasons: the win model needs examples of an unfavourable momentum reading to learn anything from that feature, and whether the filter is worth having is a question this log should answer with its own numbers rather than one to assume. Share counts are sized from your own risk-per-trade setting (the Screen’s sizing panel), so the same setup is a different number of shares for different accounts; the option rows are always one contract each. Captured in the closing half hour (15:30–16:00 ET): every “ready” idea is recorded with its full suggested trade set and both legs are entered at that moment, on a bar that is still forming — which is the point, because the signal is computed from that same bar and entering at its completed close would mean acting on a price that did not yet exist. A setup the schedule failed to reach inside the window (on an early-close day the window is 12:30–13:00 ET) is still recorded and tagged no entry window (one that turned ready only after a run had landed is tagged found after window): no position is entered at some later price nobody could have paid, but its stock leg is still graded from the signal close and counted in the stats, so a missed day never drops a setup from the record. The stock trade is graded on real daily high/low bars — a fill at the stop or first target counts as loss/win. A bar that opens beyond a level fills at that open, not at the level, and the open decides which came first; otherwise, if both are touched in one bar, the stop is assumed first. A setup entered in the closing half hour also counts a close beyond its stop or target on the entry day itself, since that part of the session came after the entry. If neither is reached it’s marked at the 15-day close. The option plays are valued forward with Black-Scholes (forward spot, reduced time-to-expiry, entry-day IV) and closed the day they first reach 50% of max profit (the standard take-profit; tagged TP 50%), otherwise marked to the 15-day close — modeled, not real fills: direction and magnitude are reliable, exact dollars won’t match a broker. Entry crosses the spread and so does the exit, so every option position opens underwater on friction alone — by around 1% of the debit on a high-priced contract and 20%+ on a cheap one, because a market maker’s spread is roughly a fixed number of ticks rather than a fixed percentage; P&L totals include every position held, but win rates count only setups with at least one forward session — a setup captured tonight has had no chance to move, and counting it would measure the spread rather than the trade. An option position closing — at its 50% take-profit or otherwise — does not end the setup: a credit spread reaches 50% of max profit on a small favourable move or on no move at all, so ending the whole setup there would cut the stock trade short about half the time and always on the profitable side, costing roughly ten points of win rate and turning average return slightly negative. The stock runs to its own target, stop or 15-day close; closed option rows are marked final and stop moving, and a setup with some legs done is tagged partly closed rather than quietly left looking untouched. Educational only — not investment advice.